2015 National Polls

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

GOP Leaders Running Neck-and-Neck with Clinton

Paleologos On The Poll

In a Close Election, the 'Unfaves' Will Matter

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between December 2 and December 6, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and who intend to vote in 2016. Quota and demographic information -- including region, race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landlines (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The margin of error for the Democratic primary/caucus subset of 363 likely voters is +/- 5.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the Republican primary/caucus subset of 357 likely voters is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

Key Names/Issues

Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Planned Parenthood, ISIS, terrorism

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Releases

Nationwide Poll Shows Clinton Leading Democratic Field - October 1, 2015

National Poll Shows Trump, Carson & Fiorina in Top 3 GOP Spots - September 30, 2015

Paleologos on the Poll

Breaking Down Clinton's Lead - October 1, 2015

The 2016 Gang of Six - September 30, 2015

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between September 24 and September 28, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and who intend to vote in 2016. Quota and demographic information -- including region, race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landlines (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. The margin of error for the Republican primary subset of 380 voters is +/- 5.03 percentage points. The margin of error for the Democratic primary subset of 430 voters is +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Key Names/Issues

Planned Parenthood, government shutdown, Barack Obama, US Congress, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Lincoln Chafee, Larry Lessig, Martin O'Malley, Jim Webb, Islam, Muslims, State Department emails, Benghazi

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Releases

Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll Shows Clinton Holding Strong Lead among Democrats across the Nation -- July 15, 2015

Suffolk University/USA TODAY Poll Shows Trump on Top with GOP Voters Nationwide -- July 14, 2015

Paleologos on the Poll

General Election 'Dangerously Close' for Clinton

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1,000 adults was conducted between July 9 and July 12, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age or older, residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and who intend to vote in 2016. Quota and demographic information -- including region, race, and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landlines (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the households were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document that follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee, Obamacare, same-sex marriage, immigration, ISIS

Poll Documents

Marginals[PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

America Divided on Gun Laws

Paleologos on the Poll

Confederate Flag and Gun Laws

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1000 adults was conducted between June 25 and June 29, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age and older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s quota and demographic information - including region, race, and age - were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65%) and cell phones (35%) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into 4 general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

South Carolina shooting, Confederate flag, gun control, racism, American currency

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Congress Should Have Role in Iran Deal

Paleologos on the Poll

Gay Marriage

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1000 adults was conducted between April 8th and April 13th, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age and older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s quota and demographic information - including region, race, and age - were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65%) and cell phones (35%) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into 4 general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Key Names/Issues

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Scott Walker, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, US Congress, Iran, same-sex marriage, religious freedom, terrorism, Oklahoma City bombing

Poll Documents

Marginals [PDF]

Tables [PDF]

Press Release

Rich Get Richer and Government Holds the Key; Split Decision on Obama's Handling of Economy

Paleologos on the Poll

A Lukewarm View of the Economy

Statement of Methodology

This survey of 1000 adults was conducted between January 21st and January 25th, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults 18 years of age and older residing in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s quota and demographic information - including region, race, and age - were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65%) and cell phones (35%) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each state were proportional to the number of adult residents in each state. States were grouped into 4 general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. Surveys were administered in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.