New Wisconsin Poll: Split Decision Between Harris and Trump

With Election Day just over a week away, an exclusive Suffolk University/USA TODAY network poll shows former President Donald Trump with a small lead, 48% to 47%, over Vice President Kamla Harris in Wisconsin among likely statewide voters.

However, Door County along Lake Michigan, the state’s “bellwether” county—a county that has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1996¬—shows Harris leading 50%-47% over Trump. Both polls are each within their respective margins of error.

Wisconsin features eight total candidates on the ballot. Statewide the other six candidates combined for 3%, and in Door County for 1%. Around 1% remain undecided both statewide and in the bellwether.

Gender Gap

In the statewide poll, there is a pronounced gender gap. Harris leads by 14 points among women, 55%-41%. However, Trump leads among men by 18 points, 56%-38%.

Educational Attainment

Trump leads among voters without a college degree, 55%-40%, with Harris far ahead among those with a minimum of a college degree, 57%-36%.

Direction of Country

Over six in ten likely voters (62%) say the country is on the wrong track, compared to 28% who say the country is going in the right direction. But not all wrong-track respondents are voting Trump, as one in five wrong-track voters are voting for Harris.

Early Voting

Though only a small subset of Wisconsin voters have cast ballots, Harris has a commanding 79%-19% lead among those respondents who said they have already voted.

Older Age Demographic

Harris’ significant lead among older voters may account for her relative strength in the Door County bellwether, which has a higher median age than the state. In the statewide poll, Harris leads Trump 58%-40% among those ages 65 and up.

“You may see a little bit of a difference between Door County and the statewide vote this time
around,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Harris’ strength among older voters is showing us that Door County could be more Harris-friendly than past presidential elections.”

In 2016, Trump took Door County 49%-46%, and also edged out Hillary Clinton statewide, 48%-47%. In the 2020 race, Biden prevailed over Trump in both Door Country and statewide by virtually identical slim margins, 50%-49%. Bellwethers are intended to predict outcomes, not margins of victory.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted October 20-23, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including gender, race, education level, and age—was determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 72 Wisconsin counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for bellwether Door County is +/-5.65 percentage points. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].