New Michigan Poll: Harris and Trump Virtually Tied

With less than one week to go before Election Day, the key swing state of Michigan is in a virtual dead heat, with former President Donald Trump at 47.4% and Vice President Kamala Harris at 47.0% statewide. In the bellwether county of Kent, Harris leads 47.33% to Trump’s 46.33%. All results are well within the margin of error.

In a September poll, Harris led in the statewide polling and bellwether by three points.

The close margin underscores the importance and impact of third-party candidates. In total there are six third-party candidates listed on the Michigan ballot. Of the group, both Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Natural Law candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. polled at 1.4% each, with independent Cornel West at 1%. Kennedy tried unsuccessfully to remove his name from the Michigan ballot after endorsing Trump. Other candidates listed were Libertarian Party Chase Oliver, US Taxpayer Party Randall Terry, and independent Joseph Kishore, who combined for 0.4%. Just 1% of likely voters are undecided at this point.

Bellwether

Kent County is the Michigan bellwether that has a history of correctly predicting presidential statewide swings when Trump has been on the ballot. In the latest bellwether poll, Harris edged Trump by one point, 47% to 46%, – tighter than the 48% to 45% advantage she held in September.

Gender Gap

Trump has widened his advantage among men in the statewide poll from +15 to +20 points since September, while Harris still leads Trump by exactly 19 points among women. In Kent County, Harris was ahead of Trump by nine points among women (down from +11), while trailing Trump by nine points among men, where Trump improved his edge by five points since September.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 likely Michigan voters was conducted October 24-27, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including gender, race, education level, and age—was determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 83 Michigan counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for bellwether Kent County, Michigan is +/-5.65 percentage points. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].