New Poll in Arizona, Nevada Shows Harris Lead Among Hispanic Voters; Trump Gains with Younger Hispanic Men

With just over one month left until Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump among self-identified Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada, though Trump has made gains with younger male Hispanic voters compared to 2020, according to a pair of exclusive Suffolk University/USA TODAY surveys of Hispanic voters fielded September 27-October 2, 2024.
In Arizona, Harris leads Trump 57%-38% among Hispanic voters, with Green Party Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver both under 1%. Three percent of voters remain undecided. When asked how they voted in the 2020 election, 55% of those Hispanic voters said they voted for Biden, while 33% said they voted for Trump.

In Nevada, Harris’s lead over Trump is slightly smaller, at 56%-40%; Independent American Party Joel Skousen is just over 1%, Libertarian Chase Oliver is under 1%, and 2% are undecided. When asked how they voted in the 2020 election, 56% said they voted for Biden, while 33% said they voted for Trump.

“So far, Harris is falling short of the 24-26 point advantage that Joe Biden carried with Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada in 2020, according to the exit polls from those states,” said Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos. “This Democratic shortfall is largely due to young Hispanic men.”

In both states, men under 50 years of age are choosing Trump over Harris.

Among Hispanic men ages 18-34 in Nevada, 53% say they plan to vote for Trump and 40% say they plan to vote for Harris. When asked how they voted in 2020, 41% of that same group said they voted for Trump and 40% said they voted for Biden, according to the poll. Among Hispanic men ages 35-49 in Nevada, 53% say they plan to vote for Trump and 39% say they plan to vote for Harris. When asked how they voted in, 47% of that same group said they voted for Trump and 47% said they voted for Biden, according to the poll.

Among Hispanic men ages 18-34 in Arizona, 51% say they plan to vote for Trump and 39% say they plan to vote for Harris, according to the poll. When asked how they voted in 2020, 42% of that same group said they voted for Trump, and 36% of that same group said they voted for Biden. Among Hispanic men ages 35-49 in Arizona, 57% say they plan to vote for Trump and 37% say they plan to vote for Harris. When asked how they voted in 2020, 50% of that same group said they voted for Trump and 39% of that same group said they voted for Biden.

Immigration and economy top issues among Hispanic voters

The economy was the most important issue for 37% of poll respondents in Nevada, with immigration coming in at a distant second, nearly 20 points back at 17%, and 8% saying abortion. Arizona respondents agreed, with 29% saying the economy was the most important issue, 15% choosing immigration policy and 11% saying abortion.

Abortion rights on the ballot

Both states have abortion issues on their November ballots. Nevada’s Question 6 would create a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion, with 61% of Hispanic voters in favor of that amendment. Similarly in Arizona, Proposition 139 would create a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion, and 54% of Hispanic voters are in favor.

Methodology

The Suffolk University/USA TODAY surveys were conducted from September 27-October 2, through live interviews of 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in the states of Arizona and Nevada. Quota and demographic information—including region, gender, and age—were determined from 2020 national census data and 2020 exit polling in Arizona and Nevada. The margin of sampling error for results from each state is +/-4.4 percentage points. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].