New Poll of Arizona Voters: Trump Has a Six-Point Lead

With less than six weeks to go before the presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump (48%) has a six-point lead over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris (42%), according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll of likely Arizona voters.

Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver each received 1%, while 5% are undecided and 2% refused a response. The findings are within the poll’s margin of error.

“Trump’s strength is driven by the two top issues in Arizona—the economy and immigration,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “Trump is winning each issue by overwhelming margins.”

Among those voters who said inflation/economy is the No. 1 issue, Trump leads Harris 75%-17%, and among those who said immigration is the most important issue Trump leads 81%-11%. On less pressing issues to Arizona voters, Harris leads Trump among those who said uniting the country is the most important issue 54%-25% and leads Trump 94%-5% among those respondents who said abortion rights is the most important agenda item facing the next president.

Job Performance

Arizona voters gave Trump’s job performance as president from 2017-21 higher marks than Harris’s job performance as the current US vice president. Overall, 52% of likely voters gave Trump an approval rating while 46% disapprove. Harris’ approval was 39% compared to 55% disapproval.

Bellwethers

The presidential bellwether of Maricopa County, which has a history of correctly predicting statewide election results, showed a similar trend when likely voters were asked the ballot test question. In Maricopa County, Trump leads Harris 47% to 43%, with 8% undecided and 2% refusing a response.

“Bellwethers are designed as an additional statistical test to determine outcomes during a specific timeframe, not margin of victory,” Paleologos said. “However, when Maricopa County swung to Trump in 2016, he won the state, and when it swung back to Biden in 2020, the statewide winner was Biden.”

Hispanic Voters

Harris enjoys wide leads among Hispanic voters in Arizona but not enough to give her the overall lead statewide. Harris leads Trump among likely Hispanic voters 47%-35% with Oliver receiving 3%, Stein 1%, and 11% undecided. In Maricopa County, Harris leads Trump 52%-33% with 14% undecided.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 Arizona likely voters was conducted September 21-24 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including party affiliation, gender, race, and age—were determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 15 Arizona counties were grouped into three general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for bellwether Maricopa County is +/-5.65 percentage points. Spanish translations provided by Pamela Loaiza. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].