New Poll of Michigan Voters: Harris Edges Trump

With just six weeks to go before the presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris (47.6%) leads Republican nominee Donald Trump (45.4%) by just over two points, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll of likely Michigan voters taken after the second assassination attempt on former President Trump.

The six other candidates combined received a small but potentially significant 2%, while 5% were undecided or refused to respond.

“The Michigan ballot may confuse voters with its eight listed candidates for president,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “These third-party candidates may be the recipients of support from voters who have strong convictions for third parties, or who may simply not want to vote for either major party candidate. Either way, third party votes will influence the outcome for the major party candidates.”

In addition to Harris and Trump, the Michigan ballot lists Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, US Taxpayer Party candidate Randall Terry, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Natural Law Party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and independents Joseph Kishore and Cornel West.

Personal Popularity

Harris (49% favorable, 49% unfavorable) is slightly more popular than Trump (46% favorable, 51% unfavorable). However, Trump’s job approval as president between 2017–21 (51% total approve, 47% total disapprove) rates higher than Harris’ current job approval as vice president (44% total approve, 50% total disapprove).

Bellwether

Kent County is the Michigan bellwether that has a history of correctly predicting presidential statewide swings when Trump has been on the ballot. In the latest bellwether poll, Harris edges Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 4% opting for third-party candidates and 4% undecided. Harris’ lead is well within the statistical margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points.

Gender Gap

The poll also showed a statistical advantage for Harris in both the statewide and bellwether. Statewide, Harris was ahead of Trump by 19 points among women, surpassing Trump’s 15-point advantage among men. In Kent County, Harris was ahead of Trump by 11 points among women, while trailing Trump by just four points among men.

Methodology

The statewide survey of 500 likely Michigan voters was conducted September 16-19, using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including gender, race, education level, and age—was determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 83 Michigan counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for bellwether Kent County, Michigan is +/-5.65 percentage points. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].