New Poll Of Pennsylvania Voters: Harris Leads Trump By Three Points
Harris ahead in both presidential bellwethers; polls confirm powerful gender gap for Harris over Trump
With just seven weeks to go before the presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris (48.6%) leads Republican nominee Donald Trump (45.6%) by three points, according to a Suffolk University/USA TODAY statewide poll of likely Pennsylvania voters taken after the presidential debate between Harris and Trump.
Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 0.2% and Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver received 0.4%, while 5.2% are undecided. The findings are within the poll’s margin of error.
Most polling aggregators agree that Pennsylvania is the critical state to win on the road to the White House. The Keystone State is also one of the earliest states to begin the vote-casting process, with mail-in ballots slated to be mailed out next week.
“The Harris lead in Pennsylvania negates a substantial drop in Democratic registration that has occurred over the past four years,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
In 2020, there were 666,202 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. Today, the Democratic voter registration advantage has dropped to 354,152.
Personal Popularity
Part of Harris’ strong showing in today’s poll is her personal popularity. When voters were asked if they had an overall favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates, Harris is rated 49% favorable and 47% unfavorable, while Trump received a popularity rating of 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.
Two Pennsylvania bellwether counties with a past history of correctly predicting statewide election results showed a similar trend when likely voters were asked the ballot test question. In Erie County, Harris leads Trump 48% to 44%, and in Northampton County she leads 50% to 45%. Both are within each poll’s margin of error.
Although Hispanic likely voters represent only 5% of the Pennsylvania electorate, more than 13% of Northampton County’s likely voters identify as Hispanic. Harris’ wider lead in the county is driven by a 60%-25% advantage among Hispanic voters.
“Bellwethers are designed as an additional statistical test to determine outcomes during a specific timeframe, not margin of victory,” Paleologos said. “However, when Erie and Northampton swung to Trump in 2016, he won the state, and when those bellwethers swung back to Biden in 2020, the statewide winner was Biden.”
Gender Gap
The poll also showed a statistical advantage for Harris across all three polls: In Pennsylvania, she is winning among women by far more than she is losing among men. In Erie County, Harris was ahead of Trump by 20 points among women, but behind Trump by ten points among men. In Northampton County, Harris leads Trump by 18 points among women, but trails Trump by nine among men. Statewide, Harris was ahead of Trump by 17 points among women, but behind Trump by 12 points among men.
“In order for Trump to change this calculus he needs to open up a larger margin among men or close the wide gap by which he is losing among women,” Paleologos said. “Easier said than done.”
Methodology
The statewide survey of 500 Pennsylvania likely voters was conducted September 11-15 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including party affiliation, gender, race, and age—was determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 67 Pennsylvania counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for Bellwether ID results based on the total sample is +/-5.65 percentage points for Northampton and Erie counties, respectively. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].
Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 0.2% and Libertarian nominee Chase Oliver received 0.4%, while 5.2% are undecided. The findings are within the poll’s margin of error.
Most polling aggregators agree that Pennsylvania is the critical state to win on the road to the White House. The Keystone State is also one of the earliest states to begin the vote-casting process, with mail-in ballots slated to be mailed out next week.
“The Harris lead in Pennsylvania negates a substantial drop in Democratic registration that has occurred over the past four years,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
In 2020, there were 666,202 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. Today, the Democratic voter registration advantage has dropped to 354,152.
Personal Popularity
Part of Harris’ strong showing in today’s poll is her personal popularity. When voters were asked if they had an overall favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates, Harris is rated 49% favorable and 47% unfavorable, while Trump received a popularity rating of 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable.
Bellwethers
Two Pennsylvania bellwether counties with a past history of correctly predicting statewide election results showed a similar trend when likely voters were asked the ballot test question. In Erie County, Harris leads Trump 48% to 44%, and in Northampton County she leads 50% to 45%. Both are within each poll’s margin of error.
Although Hispanic likely voters represent only 5% of the Pennsylvania electorate, more than 13% of Northampton County’s likely voters identify as Hispanic. Harris’ wider lead in the county is driven by a 60%-25% advantage among Hispanic voters.
“Bellwethers are designed as an additional statistical test to determine outcomes during a specific timeframe, not margin of victory,” Paleologos said. “However, when Erie and Northampton swung to Trump in 2016, he won the state, and when those bellwethers swung back to Biden in 2020, the statewide winner was Biden.”
Gender Gap
The poll also showed a statistical advantage for Harris across all three polls: In Pennsylvania, she is winning among women by far more than she is losing among men. In Erie County, Harris was ahead of Trump by 20 points among women, but behind Trump by ten points among men. In Northampton County, Harris leads Trump by 18 points among women, but trails Trump by nine among men. Statewide, Harris was ahead of Trump by 17 points among women, but behind Trump by 12 points among men.
“In order for Trump to change this calculus he needs to open up a larger margin among men or close the wide gap by which he is losing among women,” Paleologos said. “Easier said than done.”
Methodology
The statewide survey of 500 Pennsylvania likely voters was conducted September 11-15 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in the November 2024 general election for president. Each area’s quota and demographic information—including party affiliation, gender, race, and age—was determined from presidential exit polls and 2020 census data. The 67 Pennsylvania counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total statewide sample is +/-4.4 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for Bellwether ID results based on the total sample is +/-5.65 percentage points for Northampton and Erie counties, respectively. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].
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