New Poll of Black Voters in PA and MI: Harris at Top of Ticket Drives Enthusiasm and Margin Over Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris has energized Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania and is polling better than President Joe Biden did in June with the same voters, according to an exclusive new Suffolk University/USA TODAY network poll of Black voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan taken August 11-14.

In Michigan, Harris leads former President Donald Trump 70%-9% among Black voters, followed by independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (6%) and Cornel West (4%),with the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver combining for 1%, and 9% undecided. In June, Biden led Trump 54%-15%.

In Pennsylvania, Harris leads former President Donald Trump 70%-11% among Black voters, followed by Kennedy (5%), West (2%), with Stein and Oliver combining for 1% and 9% undecided. In June, Biden led Trump 56%-11%.

“There is no question that Harris at the top of the ticket has caused an immediate jump in support at the expense of all other candidates and categories,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “She is well on her way to unifying the Black community, though she’s still short of the kind of Black voter margins that she must secure to win states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.”

Exit polls from 2020 in both Pennsylvania and Michigan showed the Democratic nominee Joe Biden winning Black voters 92%-7% over Trump.

‘Black jobs’ comment offensive to most voters polled

Trump’s recent comments about “Black jobs” were not well received in either state’s Black community. In Pennsylvania, 67% of those surveyed found those comments offensive. In Michigan, 72% did.

When Michigan voters were asked if Harris represented Black respondents in the poll, 61% said she did, while 27% indicated she did not represent Black voters like them. In Pennsylvania, 58% said she represents “people like me” and 30% said she did not.

Voters in both states focused on inflation and the economy

Roughly one-third of voters said the economy/inflation was the No. 1issue in both states and the impact of the economy is clearly hurting low-income households. Among those earning less than $50,000 per year in Michigan, 44% said their household financial situation has worsened over the last four years, while just 27% said it improved. In Pennsylvania 42% of Black respondents earning less than $50,000 said their household financial situation has worsened over the last four years, while just 25% said it improved.

Methodology

The Suffolk University/USA TODAY surveys were conducted from August 11-14, through live interviews of 500 Black voters in the states of Pennsylvania and Michigan. Quota and demographic information—including region, gender, and age—were determined from 2020 national census data and 2020 exit polling in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The margin of sampling error for results from each state is +/-4.4 percentage points. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, [email protected].