Long known for its accuracy in predicting even the tightest political races, The Suffolk University Political Research Center now finds itself atop FiveThirtyEight.com’s list of “The Most and Least Accurate Pollsters of 2021-22.”
Run by statistician Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight.com tracks and reports on hundreds of polling organizations, rating them based on a statistical model on pollster accuracy. Its ranking of polls for the 2021-22 Senate, House and gubernatorial races took into account “average error, share of elections ‘called’ correctly and average statistical bias of each pollster’s polls in the final 21 days” before the general elections. Suffolk topped the list of most accurate pollsters among those who conducted at least five qualifying polls last cycle, sharing the lowest average error rate of 1.9 percent with only The New York Times/Siena College. That prompted a “special congratulations” to Suffolk from FiveThirtyEight.
"Fivethirtyeight.com has a database of over 500 pollsters nationally which they track every election year. Our midterm ranking is a testament to our dedication to best practices, non-partisanship, and to the strong support from Suffolk University President Marisa Kelly," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
Established in 2002, the Suffolk University Political Research Center conducts statewide and national surveys as well as bellwether polls. It examines political races and analyzes voters' opinions on key issues. Suffolk University presidential polls have predicted outcomes in key battleground states including Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and its innovative Cityview polls provide valuable insight into major urban areas across the country.