A clear majority of midterm voters (56 percent) want to elect a Congress that stands up to President Trump. But the majority of voters polled (54 percent) also oppose impeaching Trump, according to a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll.
And while most voters do not think the House should seriously consider impeaching the president, Republicans, Democrats and independents alike think that is exactly what will happen, should Democrats win control of the House in the November election. On that question, 54 percent of voters said a House controlled by Democrats will seriously consider impeaching Trump, while 32 percent did not think that would happen.
In the generic congressional ballot test, where voters weigh in on which party’s nominee they will support this November, midterm voters are supporting the Democratic Party’s candidate by a 51 percent to 43 percent edge (+8), a margin which according to many experts could translate to a change in House leadership from Republican to Democrat.
“Midterm voters are saying they are voting Democrat for Congress, they believe Democrats will seriously consider impeaching President Trump, and yet they are personally opposed to impeachment,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “Welcome to the 2018 midterm election.”
Most important issues
When voters were asked to name the issue that will most affect their vote for Congress, 14 percent said health care; 11 percent said immigration/border security; 9 percent each said the economy and taxes/budget/deficit; and 8 percent said civil rights/gender equality/social issues.
Three-fourths of voters (75 percent) said it didn’t matter whether a man or a woman was elected in their congressional district this fall, although 7 percent indicated a preference for a man and 16 percent preferred a woman candidate. And when voters were asked if they would be more or less likely to support a candidate who supported the Equal Rights Amendment, 75 percent indicated more likely, 7 percent said less likely, and 13 percent said it would make no difference. Currently, the Equal Rights Amendment needs one more state legislature to ratify the amendment to meet the constitutional requirement for approval by three-quarters of the states.
Supreme Court and the Kavanaugh confirmation
Midterm voters had a favorable impression of the Supreme Court by 55 percent to 25 percent, yet voters had mixed emotions about the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Nearly 33 percent said they felt angry while 26 percent were delighted, 17 percent were uneasy, and 16 percent were OK with it. Overall, 35 percent said it was a good thing and 45 percent said it was a bad thing, while 13 percent said it makes no difference. Among men, 40 percent thought it was a bad thing and 39 percent said it was a good thing, but among women, the difference was more pronounced with 51 percent saying it was a bad thing while just 32 percent said it was a good thing.
The economy versus the right track
Nearly 58 percent of voters said that we are in a period of economic recovery, yet when asked if the country is going in the right direction, just 36 percent said the country is going in the right direction, while 55 percent said it’s on the wrong track.
Methodology
The nationwide survey of 1,000 voters was conducted October 18 through October 22 using live telephone interviews of households where respondents indicated they were registered to vote and planning to vote in the midterm election. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Results are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos by email, or at 781-290-9310.