Suffolk University Political Research Center

Proven precision, wide reach, and trusted expertise

PA Statewide and Bellwethers with USA TODAY

November 1, 2024

MI Statewide and Bellwether with USA TODAY

October 30, 2024
Established in 2002 and based in Boston, the Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) conducts statewide and national surveys as well as bellwether polls. It examines political races and analyzes voters' opinions on key issues.

Suffolk University presidential polls have predicted outcomes in key battleground states including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

2022: 7 for 7 in US Senate Elections

All polls taken in final 3 weeks prior to November 8, 2022

Nevada Statewide Poll (10/24-10/28): Cortez Masto +1
 Actual Nov 2022: Cortez Masto +1
Pennsylvania Statewide Poll (10/27-10/30): Fetterman +2
 Actual Nov 2022: Fetterman +4
Northampton County, PA Bellwether (10/27-10/30): Fetterman +2
 Actual Nov 2022 Northampton: Fetterman +5
Centre County, PA Bellwether (10/27-10/30): Fetterman +7
 Actual Nov 2022 Centre: Fetterman +7
Barrington, NH Bellwether (11/3-11/6): Hassan +4
 Actual Nov 2022 Barrington: Hassan +10
Actual Nov 2022 Statewide: Hassan +10
Manchester, NH Bellwether (11/3-11/6): Hassan +8
 Actual Nov 2022 Manchester: Hassan +16
Actual Nov 2022 Statewide: Hassan +10
Maricopa County, AZ Bellwether (11/3-11/6): Kelly +1
 Actual Nov 2022 Maricopa: Kelly +6
Actual Nov 2022 Statewide: Kelly +4

Pollster Ratings

Fivethirtyeight.com

Midterm Election (November, 2022)
Minimum 5 polls within final 3 weeks of election

Rank Institution Avg Error
1 Suffolk University 1.9
1 NY Times/Sienna College 1.9
2 Alaska Survey Research 2.2
3 Survey USA 2.4
3 Echelon Insights 2.4
4 Beacon Research/Shaw 2.9
5 Marist College 3
6 Cygnal 3.1
7 Fabrizio, Lee, & Assoc. 3.2
8 Research Co. 3.3
9 Ohio Predictive Insights 3.4
10 Ipsos 3.8
11 KA Consulting 3.9
12 Remington Research 4.1
12 Emerson College 4.1
12 YouGov 4.1

Source

Realclearpolitics.com

All elections 2014-2022 (5 election cycles)
Minimum 10 states polled

Rank Institution Avg Error
1 Suffolk University 3.7
2 Emerson College 3.9
3 Trafalgar Group 4.3
3 NY Times/Sienna 4.3
4 Insider Advantage 4.4
4 FOX News 4.4
5 CNN 4.6
6 PPP 4.7
6 Quinnipiac University 4.7
6 Survey USA 4.7
7 Rasmussen Reports 5
8 NBC News/WSJ/Marist 5.2
9 Remington Research 5.6
10 CBS News/YouGov 5.7
10 Monmouth University 5.7

Source

New & Notable

2022 Midterm Election Polls

Suffolk University's 2022 midterm election polls will include the key states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Archives

Starting in 2002, SUPRC was the first research center to make all of our demographic cross-tabulation data for every poll available at no cost; and we're proud to continue.

The Bellwether Model

SUPRC Director David Paleologos is the author of a proprietary bellwether model that has an 89% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes.

Support Our Work!

Support the Suffolk University Political Research Center's work by making a donation.

Poll Distribution List

Get the scoop on upcoming Suffolk University polls!

If you are a member of the media and would like to be on SUPRC's poll distribution list for advisories of upcoming polls, please contact Greg Gatlin in the Office of Public Affairs, or email the Research Center.

The Suffolk University Political Research Center in Action