Suffolk University Political Research Center

Proven precision, wide reach, and trusted expertise

Established in 2002 and based in Boston, the Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) conducts statewide and national surveys as well as bellwether polls. It examines political races and analyzes voters' opinions on key issues.

Suffolk University presidential polls have predicted outcomes in key battleground states including Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

2024 Swing State Polls Taken in the Final Three Weeks

14 for 14 Within the Margin of Error

2024 US President

All results within the margin of error
Wisconsin Statewide October Suffolk Poll Trump +1
Actual Vote Trump +1
Door County, Wisconsin Bellwether October Suffolk Poll Harris +3
Actual Vote Harris +2
Michigan Statewide October Suffolk Poll EVEN
Actual Vote Trump +1
Kent County, Michigan Bellwether October Suffolk Poll Harris +1
Actual Vote Harris +5
Pennsylvania Statewide November Suffolk Poll EVEN
Actual Vote Trump +2
Erie County, Pennsylvania Bellwether November Suffolk Poll EVEN
Actual Vote Trump +1
Northampton County, Pennsylvania Bellwether November Suffolk Poll Trump +2
Actual Vote Trump +2

2024 US Senate

All results within the margin of error
Wisconsin Statewide October Suffolk Poll Baldwin +1
Actual Vote Baldwin +1
Door County, Wisconsin Bellwether October Suffolk Poll Baldwin +6
Actual Vote Balwin +3
Michigan Statewide October Suffolk Poll Slotkin +3
Actual Vote Slotkin +1
Kent County, Michigan Bellwether October Suffolk Poll Slotkin +3
Actual Vote Slotkin +5
Pennsylvania Statewide November Suffolk Poll Casey +4
Actual Vote EVEN
Erie County, Pennsylvania Bellwether November Suffolk Poll Casey +1
Actual Vote Casey +1
Northampton County, Pennsylvania Bellwether November Suffolk Poll Casey +1
Actual Vote McCormick +1

Pollster Ratings

Fivethirtyeight.com

Midterm Election (November, 2022)
Minimum 5 polls within final 3 weeks of election

Rank Institution Avg Error
1 Suffolk University 1.9
1 NY Times/Sienna College 1.9
2 Alaska Survey Research 2.2
3 Survey USA 2.4
3 Echelon Insights 2.4
4 Beacon Research/Shaw 2.9
5 Marist College 3
6 Cygnal 3.1
7 Fabrizio, Lee, & Assoc. 3.2
8 Research Co. 3.3
9 Ohio Predictive Insights 3.4
10 Ipsos 3.8
11 KA Consulting 3.9
12 Remington Research 4.1
12 Emerson College 4.1
12 YouGov 4.1

Source

Realclearpolitics.com

All elections 2014-2022 (5 election cycles)
Minimum 10 states polled

Rank Institution Avg Error
1 Suffolk University 3.7
2 Emerson College 3.9
3 Trafalgar Group 4.3
3 NY Times/Sienna 4.3
4 Insider Advantage 4.4
4 FOX News 4.4
5 CNN 4.6
6 PPP 4.7
6 Quinnipiac University 4.7
6 Survey USA 4.7
7 Rasmussen Reports 5
8 NBC News/WSJ/Marist 5.2
9 Remington Research 5.6
10 CBS News/YouGov 5.7
10 Monmouth University 5.7

Source

New & Notable

2022 Midterm Election Polls

Suffolk University's 2022 midterm election polls will include the key states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Archives

Starting in 2002, SUPRC was the first research center to make all of our demographic cross-tabulation data for every poll available at no cost; and we're proud to continue.

The Bellwether Model

SUPRC Director David Paleologos is the author of a proprietary bellwether model that has an 89% record of accuracy in predicting outcomes.

Support Our Work!

Support the Suffolk University Political Research Center's work by making a donation.

Poll Distribution List

Get the scoop on upcoming Suffolk University polls!

If you are a member of the media and would like to be on SUPRC's poll distribution list for advisories of upcoming polls, please contact Greg Gatlin in the Office of Public Affairs, or email the Research Center.

The Suffolk University Political Research Center in Action